Moist low-levels after yesterday evening’s showers led to
low clouds, preventing much cooldown last night, with a low of 33F so far,
though the day 7 low will likely be achieved at 06z tonight. However, as the
sun rose, the low clouds burned off somewhat, with temperatures rising to 44F before
leveling off due to cold air aloft. The cold air aloft is leading to
instability, and showers are approaching due to the instability and a subtle
disturbance approaching. Clearing skies with drier low-levels will lead to a
colder night tonight, but lingering northwesterly winds will prevent ideal
radiational cooling and the boundary layer might remain fairly well-mixed for
most of the night, leading to warmer than modeled low temperatures. However, it
might be a close call for radiational cooling as the wind will probably weaken
somewhat later in the night. Abundant sunshine early on will lead to steep
low-level lapse rates and temperatures above model guidance for tomorrow, with
it warming up the best it can given the still cold air aloft. The instability
will eventually lead to some cumulus clouds and maybe a shower or two.
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