It dropped to 54F last
night with calm winds and clear skies until low clouds moved in right before
sunrise. Clouds broke up earlier this afternoon with a high of 86F so far, but
it could still rise a little more. It seems like the clouds did not last long
enough to prevent such hot temperatures. Tricky forecast for day 2, with a cold
front moving in tonight before stalling to the south, with winds turning to
northeasterly and weakening. It will be a rather shallow front though, with
warm air still present aloft. These low-level cold air masses are often hard
for models to represent, and they are usually stronger and more persistent than
modeled especially in the Plains and when there are thick low-level clouds as
will be the case tomorrow. That said, the NAM 3-km is probably overdone with
the low-level cold, showing a daytime high 30F cooler than the GFS! The high will
probably at 06z tonight, since the cold front will arrive just after that with
a brief warm surge right before the front. The low will likely be at the late
06z (Thursday 06z). Some showers and drizzle are likely given the low-level
saturation and weak forcing for ascent near the stalled front, perhaps amounting
to a few hundredths of an inch. With dry air aloft and resultant lack of cloud
ice, rain will form via warm rain processes.
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