We begin the WxChallenge season with clear sky and dry air in Montana.
Combined with almost no wind, this will lead to rapid radiational
cooling tonight, likely more so than most models show. A few cirrus
clouds tomorrow should have little or no impact on the high temperature,
with bright sunshine and dry air helping it to quickly warm up above
model guidance. Westerly winds will strengthen somewhat in the afternoon
and perhaps contribute to a bit of downsloping. These winds are tricky
to forecast for and tend to be stronger than lower resolution models
show especially in the afternoon, with high-resolution models like the
NAM 3-km and HRRR usually being more accurate. However, even the
high-resolution models show the WSW wind being mostly blocked instead of
channeled, though there is always the chance of a brief burst of ~15 kt
wind or so.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |