This week is starting off on a quiet note, not too
different from how last week ended. Mostly clear skies and a light westerly,
offshore wind will lead to good radiational cooling tonight, followed by a
quick warmup tomorrow. Unlike late last week though, the westerly wind, though
weak, will likely be enough to prevent any lake breeze from forming, leading to
higher temperatures and the high being achieved later in the afternoon. With no
lake breeze, the maximum wind will likely be even weaker than late last week. A
lot of model disagreement on temperatures especially at night due to the
difficulty of resolving the land vs lake temperature gradient, but seems like
near HRRR and NAM 3-km seems to work well lately, which is perhaps not
surprising since they are higher resolution models.
Also, the MOS-X page has been upgraded to include standard deviations, time series, and a comparison of past forecasts vs verifications.
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| Source: Meteogram Generator |