High was 30F at
the beginning, and then a push of arctic air brought it down to 17F with heavy
lake-effect snow at times, though not as much as expected due to the really
intense snow band remaining largely to the north of Erie except for a few hours
in the middle of the day when a subtle trough shifted the wind just enough to
bring the intense (though weakening) band into Erie. Snow is tapering off now as
the snow band moves back north of Erie, but the snow band will move back into
Erie tonight for a few hours before 06z tonight. Undercatch appears to be
severe, with only 0.05” being recorded. Day 7 precip might have to be thrown out,
unless there is some other manual liquid equivalent that can be used, like has
been used in some previous lake-effect snowstorms like the epic late December 2017
snowstorm.
Winds will veer from southwesterly to westerly late tonight into
tomorrow morning and gradually weaken, leading to a slight warmup with a bit
more influence from Lake Erie. The snow band over Erie tonight will mostly dissipate
later tonight as high pressure moves in with lowering subsidence inversion and
drier air. Scattered lake-effect snow showers will diminish, and precipitation amounts
may not even be measurable. The remaining low-level moisture will still lead to
a rather cloudy day tomorrow, and with snow cover further limiting solar
heating. A slow warmup is expected as the cold air modifies slightly and is no
longer being reinforced. The low will occur tomorrow night near the end (Saturday
06z) as skies clear with light winds, and combined with fresh snow cover, will lead
to good radiational cooling, perhaps colder than USL and NWS (HRRR/RAP might be
too cold though).
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| Source: PivotalWeather |