It seems like the cold front came a little sooner than
expected last night, with a 06z high of 62F. Low-level cold air is entrenched now
with northeasterly wind (with a burst of 18 kt max with the cold front) and thick
low-level clouds preventing any real daytime heating. It even dropped to 48F at
midday before warming back up a bit! Surprisingly though, showers have been
very few and far between with no rain at all in San Angelo. A little cooldown
is expected tonight, but northeasterly winds will weaken as the front retreats
back north and gradually diffuses. However, the low-level clouds and cold air
will likely hang on longer than models show, with a remnant lasting all day
tomorrow. This model error feedbacks on itself, especially during daytime, since
the erroneous warming leads to the low-level clouds evaporating sooner, leading
to more sunshine, and leading to more erroneous warming. Some warm up with
breaks of sun are still expected eventually, since the low-level cold air will become
stale and not receiving any synoptic support. Some models show winds turning to
southwesterly and strengthening a bit, but I am doubtful of any strong winds
given the stable low-level cold air preventing much mixing of the winds down
from aloft. There could also still be a few showers, but any rain is expected
to be minimal.
No comments:
Post a Comment