Winds
calmed down just in time for a quick dip to 30F around sunrise, but
that was warmer than yesterday morning with the winds staying a tad
stronger than yesterday. Full sunshine led to a quick warmup to F. There
was already 18 kt of wind near the beginning of the period with the
burst of northwesterly winds Strong southwesterly winds ahead of a
strong clipper passing to the north will inhibit radiational cooling
tonight with clear skies, with the low occurring at the end (Saturday
06z) when there is cold advection with northwesterly winds behind the
clipper, even though winds will still be too strong for radiational
cooling, also with clear skies. Actually, it is quite likely that the
high occurs overnight tonight, perhaps near the beginning (Friday 06z),
with southwesterly downsloping winds keeping it warm all night, limiting
the nocturnal inversion even with clear skies, before the wind switches
to northwesterly later tonight, starting the cold advection. Models
tend to underestimate the temperature spike during clear windy nights
when the wind can mix down much warmer air aloft down to the surface,
and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets into the 50s like the GFS
suggests.
A little sunshine fighting with cold advection tomorrow will lead to
only a slow warmup in the morning, likely to above model guidance again
but still cooler than overnight tonight, before low clouds move in and
stopping any warmup. The cold advection will lead to some mixing of very
strong winds aloft down to the surface, but the clouds limiting
destabilization and will likely limit the mixing of the winds somewhat,
with USL’s 34 kt seeming to be too high, but it will still be by far the
windiest we have had at KABR! Such strong winds are not that uncommon
in the Plains though, with flat topography and few trees to block the
wind.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |