We begin the wild
card round today, with rather quiet weather in San Antonio. An isolated
thunderstorm is affecting San Antonio now, but this evening, a temporary
northeasterly wind will advect drier but still warm air into the region.
However, the clear skies and dry air will lead to good radiational cooling
until late in the night (likely coolest until Saturday night), when the wind
will switch to southeasterly, advecting more low-level moisture. The moisture
advection, combined with radiational cooling, will lead to low-level cloud
formation late in the night, slowing or stopping the cool down. The light
southerly winds will continue into tomorrow, but the daytime heating will burn
off the low clouds by early afternoon, leading to a quicker warmup then. This
pattern of low clouds forming late at night and then burning off in the morning
is very common in central and east Texas. Models do not seem to have such a strong
cold bias for the high temperature at San Antonio like at some other cities we
have forecasted for this year. For day 1 in particular, the high will depend on
exactly how fast the low-level clouds burn off, with the NAM-3 km being slower
and most other models being faster. I suspect the high will probably still lean
toward the warm side of model guidance with the clouds burning off soon enough
for a big daytime warmup. The afternoon sunshine will also help mix down the
strengthening winds aloft down to the surface.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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