Persistently easterly winds and then clouds prevented ideal radiational cooling, with it only cooling down to 65F last night. The clouds have since burned off as expected, leading to a warmup to 87F, warmer than most models, even with a late clearing. Maximum wind is at least 21 kt. Southerly winds will prevent rapid radiational cooling tonight, with the winds also advecting warmer and more moist air and promoting low cloud formation, further slowing the cool down. The clouds will burn off again by late morning or early afternoon, with southerly winds weakening. With the hotter air mass, it will get hotter than yesterday, but once again, uncertainty in exactly when the low clouds break will lead to uncertainty in the high temperature. The weakening winds will actually help it heat up more due to the moisture advection weakening. I expect both low and high temperatures to be on the warm side of model guidance just like for day 1.
The southerly to southeasterly winds will strengthen again later tomorrow evening due to a mesolow approaching from west Texas, which means that if the maximum wind doesn’t occur near the beginning (Wednesday 06z), it would occur near the end (Thursday 06z) despite the nocturnal inversion that prevents the full strength of the wind aloft from mixing down to the surface.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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