Day 2 of Medford, OR (KMFR)

It apparently stayed cloudy enough to prevent it from getting lower than 42F last night, but clouds cleared enough with enough sunshine for a warm up to 55F today, warmer than most models. A few convective showers dropped a total of 0.03” today, with a maximum of 6 kt so far, though there may be slightly stronger winds this evening. With only partly cloudy skies for now, there is some chance of it getting below 42F before 06z tonight before clouds increase again.

 

Clouds increase again tonight, hindering much radiational cooling, with a low similar to last night. However, the low might actually occur at the end (Thursday 06z) with possibly slightly clearer skies (though this is uncertain) and a slightly cooler air mass. There might be some convective showers again tomorrow, especially in the morning, with the HRRR depicting >0.1”, though it is an outlier. These convective showers are not as affected by the rain shadow effect as the broader stratiform rain that often occurs with wintertime synoptic-scale storms. Later tomorrow, clouds will clear again, leading to only partly cloudy skies and quickly warming temperatures until reaching a limit (dry adiabatic lapse rate via mixing out and deepening the boundary layer) due to the slightly cooler air aloft, with highs likely similar to today’s and slightly above most model guidance.

 

With surface low pressure moving to the southeast of Medford, synoptic-scale northwesterly winds will arrive in the afternoon, and will be enhanced by the sunshine mixing the winds from aloft down to the surface and also through the sea breeze effect, leading to stronger winds than today, perhaps >10 kt.

 

Source: PivotalWeather

 

 

 

Source: PivotalWeather