Despite clear skies
last night, a steady 5-10 kt of southerly to southeasterly wind prevented it
from dropping below 42F. Plenty of sunshine and warm advection led to a rapid
warmup to a high of 78F, much warmer than most models, even after the rather
chilly air mass last weekend. Winds also strengthened as expected, with a maximum
of at least 21 kt.
Increasing clouds
and strong southerly winds will prevent much of a cooldown tonight, with the low
occurring at the end (Thursday 06z) behind a cold front. Increasing thicker
low-level clouds tomorrow will lead to limited sunshine and a much slower
warmup compared to today, but it will be starting from a much warmer morning
low. I suspect that it will not be completely overcast, and there will be
enough breaks of sunshine to still cause brief temperature spikes warmer than most
model guidance.
Winds will be even
stronger, >50 kt at 850-hPa, though the rather cloudy skies and relative lack
of sunshine will slightly temper the mixing of the strong winds down to the
surface. A cold front will bring a line of showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms tomorrow evening, though the rather dry air will limit severe
thunderstorm potential and rainfall amount, unlike last weekend’s major severe
weather outbreak. Even if the showers are not severe, they could still bring
down stronger winds aloft down to the surface, leading to a quick burst of
stronger winds (possibly up to 30 kt?) but likely not severe.
Temperatures will drop
quickly behind the cold front tomorrow evening, though it is not an arctic air
mass, with the westerly instead of northerly wind leading to a less direct
surge of cold air with more modification. Strong winds will prevent good
radiational cooling despite clearing skies, with the cooling coming mostly from
modest cold advection and the boundary layer still rather well mixed, and the
cool down tends to lag somewhat behind models in these situations with no
arctic air, leading to a warmer than modeled low.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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