Day 8 of Louisville, KY (KSDF)

Final day of the regular season! Rather extensive mid-level cloud cover meant that it didn’t get lower than 45F last night, much warmer than most model guidance. The clouds broke up just enough for it to warm up to 64F, on the warm side of guidance, with slight warm advection helping. With the surface high pressure still nearby, winds were rather weak with a maximum of only 10 kt so far, though they may increase a bit evening. No measurable rain has fallen, though there is a chance of a small amount this evening as showers approach from the northwest, though they are weakening. An elongated warm front will lead to some showers tonight, but Louisville will be near the southern edge of the rain after 06z as the warm front pushes north. Any rain will have to fight the dry low-level air before reaching the ground. 

 

With only a little if any rain expected this evening, but mid-level clouds, and later strengthening southerly winds, preventing radiational cooling, I expect it to stay warmer than most models tonight like last night. As the warm front pushes north of Louisville, clouds will mostly clear later tomorrow, with southwesterly winds strengthening, both of which leading to a quick warmup into the lower 80s F, fully mixing out the boundary layer, likely above most model guidance but perhaps near the USL and NWS. Mid-level clouds increase late in the afternoon but likely too late to affect the high much. As is often the case during WxChallenge, the big precipitation events occurred last weekend and this upcoming weekend, missing our forecast days.

 

Source: TropicalTidbits

 

 

Source: TropicalTidbits