After a little rain overnight (0.06” after 06z, less than most models showed), it cleared out, with decent sunshine leading to a spike to 48F before northwesterly wind of 13-14 kt kicked in. Convective cells could produce bursts of wind this evening with the daytime instability and cold air aloft, though they seem to be all missing Medford. Partly cloudy skies initially will lead to good radiational cooling early tonight, but then mid-level clouds will thicken again ahead of another storm after 06z tonight, stopping the cool down. Warm advection induced rain, perhaps mixed with snow, will arrive late tonight, which could lead to a secondary low via evaporational cooling and melting of snowflakes, though any snow accumulation will be minimal or none.
As the storm approaches the Washington coast tomorrow, the rain shadow effect will really strengthen behind the initial warm advection burst of precipitation, with strengthening southerly winds downsloping off the Cascades just aloft, leading to not much precipitation during the day tomorrow except some potentially convective showers later in the day. Some of the downsloping wind could make it to the surface and bring a burst of 15+ kt winds late tonight into tomorrow morning, kind of like the sudden surge of southwesterly wind last night, though this is very uncertain, depending on the details of how much the terrain would block the wind or how much of the strong winds aloft will mix down to the surface. Clouds breaking slightly will allow for a little sunshine to help warm it up in the afternoon. With a warmer air mass, the high will likely be near or slightly exceed today’s high. Any daytime instability could lead to convective showers and brief bursts of wind, though there won’t be as much sunshine as today.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: weather.us |
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