Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Day 7 of Chicago, IL (KORD)

Wind and mid to high-level clouds meant that it only dropped to 72F last night! It might get lower than that by 06z tonight though. It cleared out somewhat by late morning and rose to 84F before thicker mid-level clouds came in. Max wind is 19 kt. 
 
Today’s forecast will be the trickiest of the week so far. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm ahead of a cold front tonight will bring some rain, with models differing on how much. Most likely, the heaviest will be to the southeast, with relatively light amounts at KORD. The front will only slowly push east, and a solid deck of high clouds lingering behind the front will initially prevent it from warming up much during the day tomorrow. However, clearing late in the afternoon will lead to more of a warmup then, with the high perhaps not achieved until 21-22z. It will be much cooler than today with the cooler air behind the cold front, though it will still be warmer than average since the air mass is not that cool yet! Mostly clear skies (except a few mid-level clouds) by tomorrow night and cool advection will lead to the low being at the end (Friday 06z), but with winds being just strong enough to prevent strong radiational cooling (i.e. probably still near or a bit warmer than most models). Note that the HRRR surface inversion at the end is likely not really going to happen given the wind. Overall though, winds will be weaker than today and will be out of the west, offshore, so no influence from Lake Michigan is expected.
 
Source: PivotalWeather
 
Source: Meteogram Generator

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