Day 3 of Dallas, TX (KDFW)

Thick clouds prevented it from cooling down below 72F last night, though it probably will get lower than that by 06z tonight with the squall line tonight. Clouds broke up a tad, and it warmed up to 80F, but the storms are approaching, faster and farther southeast than most models, like yesterday. This means that the cooler, wetter models will verify better for day 2. Max wind is 18 kt so far, but the squall line could bring stronger winds this evening. With the squall line moving slowly and stratiform rain persisting behind the main line, there will still be some rain after 06z for day 3. However, it will likely be much less since the really heavy, convective leading edge will already be over then. That also means any leading-edge gust front will pass before 06z and not count for day 3, though slightly enhanced winds in the stratiform rain due to outflow from the mesoscale high are possible. The same model bias (with the storms being farther southeast than models) that led to more rain than modeled for days 1 and 2 will actually lead to less rain than modeled for day 3, due to the storms being mainly southeast instead of northwest of KDFW. As the squall line weakens tomorrow, the rain will subside and clouds will eventually at least partially clear out, allowing for a bit more of a warmup than today. The cold front will have weakened so much that the air mass behind it will hardly be any different than ahead of it, with winds still being southerly but weaker. 

 

Source: RadarScope

Source: PivotalWeather

 

Source: PivotalWeather