Showers and thick clouds are extending farther
southeast than expected, preventing any real warm up. After a low of 72F last night, the high so far was only
74F, and now it is back down to 72F! It’s also rained 0.74" so far, with still more yet to come, so the wetter models with the storms
pushing farther southeast were more accurate. The lack of sunshine has also led
to the lack of winds mixing down from aloft and instability necessary for the storms
to produce strong winds, with a maximum of only 16 kt so far. The rain will
temporarily retreat to the northwest late tonight into tomorrow, allowing for a
little clearing, though given how moist the low-levels are, any radiational
cooling that starts due to clearing will lead to saturation and formation of
low-level clouds. The low-level clouds will break up a bit during the day tomorrow,
leading to modest daytime heating, perhaps with highs around or slightly lower
than what was expected today. Tomorrow night, a cold front with its associated
line of showers and thunderstorms will slowly move east. Once again, there will
be a sharp precipitation gradient, this time depending on when the line of
storms move in. If it arrives earlier (before 06z), there will be more precip,
and less if it arrives later. Given the storms pushing southeast of most models
today, I suspect that will happen again tomorrow, so I think the wetter models will verify better again.
The low could occur at the end (Thursday 06z) due to the line of storms bringing
cooler, evaporatively cooled air. The cool air and associated gust front will
likely also bring a brief burst of strong winds, although like today, there might not be enough instability to produce truly strong winds, especially as it will be nighttime then.
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