Apparently, the squall line moved slowly enough for some heavy convective parts to arrive after 06z, with 1.56” afterward, even after 2.52” before 06z! The very humid air (surface dew points of 68-72F and precipitable water of 1.83” yesterday evening) can really produce very heavy rain rates that the models sometimes have a hard time handling. Flash flood warnings were issued last night. Skies have mostly cleared out, allowing for a warmup to a high of 83F. Max wind is 19 kt, perhaps with the daytime heating allowing for mixing of winds from aloft to the surface.Low clouds will reform tonight with any radiational cooling in the very moist air leading to saturation, stopping the cooling. However, the low will be at the end (Saturday 06z) due to an arctic cold front plowing through. Not all models agree that the cold front will pass by the end, but such strong cold fronts in the Plains with very cold but shallow low-level air are almost always sharper and move faster than modeled, as confirmed by comparing yesterday afternoon's model runs with reality this evening. As such, the low will likely be below all or almost all model guidance. Before that, the low clouds will break up and lead to decent daytime warming, with highs possibly warmer than today. With the still very moist low-level air mass, some showers and thunderstorms will erupt, especially to the east where moisture is greater, though they appear more scattered and not in a solid squall line like last night. The latest models suggest that most of the heavier rain will be southeast of KDFW, perhaps due to drier air aloft moving in from the southwest and the shallowness of the strong cold front.
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