Thursday, February 29, 2024

Day 8 of Watertown, NY (KART)

Cold fronts brought winds as high as 34 kt early yesterday night, but before the start of day 7. Cold advection abruptly slowed and stopped completely later in the night, with some clouds moving in, with a low of 16F. Partly sunny skies with strong westerly winds and a cold air mass led to a gradual warmup to a high of 26F today, with a maximum wind spike of 27 kt. Winds will calm down later tonight, but there is uncertainty on how cloudy it will be. There looks to be either mid-level clouds and/or low-level clouds for most of the night, but there are possible periods of clearing, which if coincident with the calm winds, will lead to quick dips in temperature below model guidance. Getting those quick dips looks like the most likely scenario, though there is the chance that it stays completely cloudy, causing the low to be least as warm as model guidance and making it not really cool down tonight. Winds will shift to southerly with decreasing clouds/increasing sunshine tomorrow, leading to a quick warmup into the mid-40s, likely back to on the warm side of model guidance again or more likely slightly above even that. The southerly winds will not be that strong, given that southerly winds tend to be weaker than modeled there.
 
Source: PivotalWeather

 
Source: PivotalWeather

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