If you thought Baltimore was hard,
wait for Albuquerque! Mostly sunny skies this evening will change to mostly
cloudy skies tonight, though not completely overcast. The breaks in the clouds,
dry air, and light winds tonight will still allow for decent radiational
cooling at least initially, but not as much as the past couple of nights. Mostly
cloudy skies will limit the daytime heating tomorrow as well, though warm
advection with light southerly flow will help it warm up anyway. Just how much
the clouds affect the warmup is a bit uncertain, leading to a somewhat large possible
temperature range, but given that most of the clouds are mid to upper-level,
and the likelihood for some breaks in the clouds, I would lean on the warmer
side, like NWS or USL.
Winds will start to pick up toward the
end, which is actually Wednesday 07z (wind is measured from midnight to
midnight local standard time, which in Albuquerque is 07z-07z). However, how
much wind is quite uncertain. Although winds are often blocked by surrounding mountains,
the southerly winds (30-40 kt just aloft at the end) will channel up the Rio
Grande valley to some extent (they are not blocked in this direction), but it
is not clear how well they will mix down to the surface given the nocturnal
inversion, with NAM 3-km showing almost no wind but HRRR and ECMWF showing 15+
kt average wind by then. It will be rather cloudy, which will mitigate the
nocturnal inversion, so probably at least some of the winds will mix down and cause
a wind surge just in time for day 1, at least if it is not delayed. But I could
see a plausible 10+ kt range for the maximum wind.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: weather.us |
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