Temperatures
stayed up all night with stiff southerly winds. A fast-moving batch of
thunderstorms already dropped 0.18” this morning, with the afternoon sharp cold
front producing even heavier rain (already 0.51” total so far). The rain
temporarily cooled it down this morning, and surprisingly, it only got up to 62F
even with some breaks of sun in the afternoon. The front brought sustained winds
of 29 kt briefly. The rapid cooldown this evening will slow after 06z, with
little or no more cold advection but winds remaining too strong for much
radiational cooling even with just partly cloudy skies. It will remain quite
cold tomorrow with a slow warmup in the cold, arctic air mass that is already mixed
in a deep boundary layer, despite just partly cloudy skies. Winds will still be
rather strong with the sunshine and flow off the warm Lake Ontario waters
helping to de-stabilize the atmosphere and allow the strong winds from aloft to
mix down to the surface. Given that the shallow arctic air mass has been a bit colder
than modeled, the high will likely not shoot well above model guidance like the
past few days, and could actually be colder than the warmer guidance like the
USL and GFS.
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