The
southerly winds did not arrive until 07z last night, ensuring a low of
24F, near the bottom end of the distribution. Since then, abundant
sunshine until early afternoon caused a rapid warmup to 69F, the warmest
February temperature ever recorded there! Surprisingly, despite the
sunshine and warmth, winds only got up to 17 kt. It seems like southerly
winds somehow do not get very strong at KART. Wind and clouds will keep
temperatures quite warm tonight, with a slower warmup tomorrow due to
more clouds, but there will still be enough sunshine for temperatures to
be similar to or slightly cooler than today. A sharp cold front will
bring a quick-hitting line of heavy showers (possibly thunderstorms)
with rapidly falling temperatures, and rain changing to snow for a
couple of hours in the evening. Given the colder temperatures and wind,
whatever snow that falls will likely undercatch. The line of showers or
thunderstorms will bring a brief period of strong winds best captured by
higher resolution models. With the strong winds mixing the lowest layer
of cold air well, models should be pretty good at capturing the low
temperature at the end (Thursday 06z). Lake Ontario will provide a bit
of moderation to the cold air mass given the westerly winds, but the
well-mixed blast of cold air moving in quickly means that the effect
shouldn't be more than a couple of degrees F.
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