It quickly cooled down to 10F, and the southerly surge delayed until after 06z, so the low was 10F. Southerly winds came in just minutes later, so it was extremely close call! Surprisingly, they only strengthened to a maximum of 12-13 kt so far. With full sunshine and a warm, southerly flow, it warmed up to a high of 46F, a bit higher than all model guidance. Southerly winds will be too strong for radiational cooling tonight, so the possible range of low temperatures is much smaller than the past two nights. It will turn cloudier through the night too as an elongated low pressure system approaches from the west. With the clouds and wind, the temperature will likely stay above model guidance, including USL, like during the day today. There is a slight chance of the low occurring at the end depending on how much it rains later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Southerly winds will persist, but almost complete cloud cover mean that it will only warm up slightly tomorrow before light rain begins in the afternoon, though probably remaining a few degrees F above model guidance until rain begins. High will be determined by when rain begins. Light rain will persist through early in the night, though there is some disagreement on how much, with GFS showing a lot more than the other models and is kind of an outlier. Unlike with lake-effect snow, this rain will not undercatch.
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