There
were just enough breaks in the clouds for it to cool down to 38F last night. It
warmed up to 56F so far (but maybe still going up a bit) with too many clouds for
a quick warmup. Winds have been very light so far but they will ramp up tonight.
Southerly winds tonight into tomorrow morning will shift to westerly and become
strong as cold air aloft and some sunshine lead to deep and strong mixing of
the boundary layer, allowing strong winds to be transported from aloft and mitigating
any mountain blocking effects. The breaks of sun will also allow for spikes in
temperature that may not be resolved in models, leading to a higher high temperature.
(There’s a small chance of the high being at the beginning, or Wednesday 06z,
if southerly winds are strong enough.) There will likely be a few instability
induced showers in the afternoon. With deep mixing and the typical dry desert
air, any rain will lead to strong evaporative cooling, a pronounced cold pool,
and a very strong gust front, so the maximum wind will likely be higher than
most guidance (HRRR kind of shows it with a brief period of 25-30 kt). With
cold advection tomorrow night and a bit of clearing, the low will be at the end
(Thursday 06z), but the downslope westerly winds will be way too strong for
good radiational cooling. If anything, it will likely stay warmer than most
models even through tomorrow night.
No comments:
Post a Comment