Clouds and wind prevented much of a
cooldown last night, with a low of 38F. Even with the clouds, the clouds were
just thin enough to allow for a warmup to a high of 46F. The rain is rather
light and staying mostly to the southeast, with the GFS outlier from yesterday
being way off in showing a stronger low pressure system with widespread
substantial precipitation. Only 0.01” of rain fell, and it is unlikely any more
will before the end of the day. The maximum wind of 14-16 kt occurred last
night, with only weaker southerly or southwesterly winds expected for the rest
of the day.
Tomorrow, a strong cold front will
plow through late in the day, with a few showers possible along the front.
Ahead of the front, weak winds will turn to west-southwesterly. In most of the
Northeast U.S., this is a warm wind, but in this case, the flow is off Lake
Ontario (whose water temperatures are in the mid-30s), which will chill the air
a bit and also cause advection fog, limiting any sunshine tomorrow. Thus, I
wouldn’t expect temperatures to go above much model guidance if at all, with
only a slow warmup, though the fog and low clouds could thin at the last minute tomorrow afternoon, allowing for a late high temperature. A switch to stiff northerly winds will allow a rapid
cooldown behind the cold front in the evening via cold advection, with a slight spike in the
wind right along the front. There will be too much wind and too many clouds for
real radiational cooling, though they may be a bit of clearing at the end (Saturday
06z) that could allow for just slightly faster cooling. With that, I think
models will handle the low quite well, unlike the past few nights. USL might
actually be pretty good for a change.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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