Surprisingly,
despite moderately strong easterly winds and some high-level clouds, it
still dropped down to 61F. That might be partially due to the low
clouds that were expected late last night not having occurred. Some
breaks in the clouds allowed for a high of 76F, with winds reaching 20
kt. A brief shower produced 0.02" this evening. The slow-moving cold
front will stall in the vicinity of KTLH tonight into tomorrow, leading
to a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms, lasting longer than
for a typical cold front. Just how much rain will be very sensitive to
the exact location of the front, though it doesn't appear to be a single
consolidated line, but rather scattered showers and thunderstorms. A
weak low-pressure system will also form along the front, enhancing
rainfall. It looks like the heaviest rain will be just to the east of
KTLH, with KTLH in the rainfall gradient between almost no rain to the
west and heavy rain to the east, making for a very tricky forecast. With
the thick clouds and rain, and also little temperature advection due to
the stalled front, temperatures won't really go anywhere, unless
everything pushes east faster and the clouds break late in the day, in
which case the high will be warmer. The wind will be rather weak with no
organized strong convection, and rain and clouds stabilizing the lower
atmosphere and preventing winds aloft from mixing down to the surface.
There is also some chance that it clears out just in time for better
radiational cooling at the end (Thursday 06z), given the light winds,
which would lead to a quick drop of a few degrees F, though the near
saturation at low-levels will limit how much it cools down. Even if it
doesn't clear out, the low will likely still be at the end with weak
cold advection.
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