Surprisingly,
it only got down to 40F last night, even with winds calming down to 5
kt around sunrise. Full sunshine led to a warmup to 66F. Maximum wind
was 16 kt last night. Winds will be almost calm tonight with clear skies
and extremely dry air, a classic setup for very rapid radiational
cooling and temperatures going below model guidance at KTLH, with models
struggling with the extremely sharp surface inversion. Full sunshine
will lead to a very rapid warmup tomorrow, with it being warmer than
today as we lose the cold advection and the unseasonably cool air
modifies. Note that just about all models, including the HRRR shown, was
too cool for day 1, and that will likely be the case tomorrow again.
However, USL was pretty good for day 1 and will probably be for day 2 as
well, though the low could still be a bit colder and high be a bit
warmer than USL. MOS-X looks pretty reasonable too. Winds will generally
be very weak, but a subtle sea breeze from the Gulf of Mexico in the
evening could bring a burst of almost 10 kt peak winds. The sea breeze
will arrive too late to affect the high temperature.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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