Mostly cloudy skies dominate tonight into
tomorrow. A strong easterly breeze and increasing moisture means that there
will be little radiational cooling tonight, though it’s debatable if it will
become completely overcast or not, which would make a difference of up to 3F
for the low temperature. Mostly cloudy skies with a few breaks of sun will lead
to a modest warmup tomorrow. It’s noteworthy that the highs have been warmer
than model guidance even with mostly cloudy skies lately, and that could be the
case again tomorrow. The daytime heating could lead to enough instability for a
few showers, but most of the rain will be associated with the weakening and
stalling out cold front that will be in the vicinity by the end (Wednesday
06z). It’s not clear if the cold front and associated storms will arrive by the
end or will still be just to the west. HRRR shows the storms reaching KTLH
earlier, but it tends to be too fast with cold fronts near the East Coast. Most
likely, very little will fall before day 2 starts. With relatively limited daytime
heating, low-level lapse rates, and instability, the strong southeasterly winds
aloft will not mix down to the surface well, and the convection will not
produce particularly strong winds. Instead, we’ll just see moderate southeasterly
winds throughout the day.
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