Ideal
radiational cooling conditions led to a low of 36F last night, with a rapid
warmup to 74F this afternoon with full sunshine through early afternoon. Then, smoke
from nearby brush fires to the southwest that likely ignited today advected
over the region, blocking out the sun a bit and stopping the warmup. That
couldn’t have been foreseen in advance! Maximum wind so far is 11 kt with a
brief burst of northerly wind, though a subtle sea breeze this evening could
lead to similar or slightly stronger winds briefly. The sea breeze will
dissipate tonight with mostly clear skies and extremely dry air, leading to rapid
radiational cooling and temperatures going below model guidance at KTLH again. It
will be warmer than last night though due to the warmer air mass now in place. Mostly
sunny skies, with perhaps just a few high cirrus clouds, will lead to a very
rapid warmup tomorrow again, with it being warmer than today as the cool air
mass continues to modify. Note that just about all models, including the HRRR
shown, was too cool for day 2, and that will likely be the case tomorrow again.
However, USL was pretty good for day 2 and will probably be for day 3 as well,
though the low could still be a bit colder and high be a bit warmer than USL. The
caveat is if there is any brush fire smoke in the area. The wind will shift to
easterly tomorrow, which would blow the smoke away from KTLH, assuming that no
new fires develop, which is a big if given the extremely dry air and strong
sunshine. Winds will generally be weak, but once again, a subtle sea breeze
from the Gulf of Mexico in the evening could bring a burst of ~10 kt peak winds
or possibly a bit more, perhaps a bit stronger than today, but will arrive just
a bit too late to affect the high temperature.
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| Source: College of DuPage |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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