Day 4 of Traverse City, MI (KTVC)

Stiff southwesterly winds and modification of air mass over Lake Michigan led to steady or slowly rising temperatures overnight last night, even with mostly clear skies. Sunshine and better vertical mixing led to a high of 46F before a cold front caused a switch to northwesterly winds and cooling temperatures. Surprisingly, the maximum wind was only 14 kt despite 30 kt winds just above the surface and sunshine that could have mixed the winds down. It is not particularly strong cold front, and winds are not that strong behind it. Although the wind is coming off Lake Michigan again now, the air mass aloft is too dry and stable and not cold enough to generate snow, with just some lake-effect clouds. As winds lighten tonight and skies clear out somewhat, we should see quick cooling, at least down to the dew point or perhaps lower, which usually happens at KTVC during favorable radiational cooling conditions. Some high clouds will move in later in the night, but shouldn’t affect the low much. The clouds will thicken and lower tomorrow due to an approaching weak low pressure, limiting daytime warming, but I suspect it will still be a bit warmer than most models. Winds will be quite weak out of the northeast or east. The low pressure will stay far enough south for the precipitation to not reach Traverse City.

 

Source: PivotalWeather