Day 3 of Traverse City, MI (KTVC)

Light snow last night amounted to 0.01” of recorded precipitation, which is lower than reality again. The low was 25F at the beginning (though somehow it strangely recorded a 6-hour low of 26F) before it warmed up later in the night, and the high was likely 36F, surprisingly low given the downsloping southwesterly winds (max of 16-17 kt). Perhaps the clouds lasted longer than expected and snow cover prevented much of a warmup. Tonight, it will be partly cloudy with continued west-southwesterly wind and slight warm advection preventing much cooling at all. The warm advection will lead to a sharp peak tomorrow around noon right ahead of a cold front, with more sunshine and warmer temperatures than today. With the snow cover aging and becoming less reflective, and more vertical mixing (and slightly more wind) expected, I don’t expect the warmup to bust like today. The cold front will cause a switch to northwesterly winds later in the day but no precipitation is expected given the dry air mass and the best dynamics associated with the Alberta clipper going well to the north. The low will likely occur at the end (Friday 06z), with a cooler air mass and winds lightening just enough for radiational cooling to get going.

 

Source: PivotalWeather