Typical
cold west-northwest flow pattern over the Great Lakes will lead to lake-effect
clouds and some snow showers tonight into tomorrow. The clouds and stiff wind
off Lake Michigan will moderate the air mass and also lead to little nighttime
cooling or daytime warming. The high could occur either tomorrow afternoon or
at the end (Wednesday 06z) with warm advection starting. Given the wind and
temperatures well below freezing, undercatch is likely, meaning that less
precipitation will be recorded than what actually falls. Also, models do tend
to overestimate this type of precipitation, perhaps due to sublimation before
reaching the ground. Lake-effect snow also tends to be dry (meaning high snow
depth to liquid ratio) due to the cold and usually dry air masses aloft typical
for lake-effect precipitation. While the warm Lake Michigan will destabilize
the atmosphere a bit for some stronger winds to mix down to the surface from aloft,
the lack of sun will counteract this effect.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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