As
expected, the clouds and wind off Lake Michigan have kept temperature variation
to a minimum, with a low of 21F (actually already a bit lower due to sublimational cooling from lake-effect snow) and a high of 29F. Max wind of 19 kt so far. Lake-effect
snow has been heavier than expected, with at least several inches of snow
having fallen, but the station only recorded 0.02” (probably only 10-20% of
reality) due to undercatch of the cold, dry, and windy lake-effect snow. Oh
well, hopefully undercatch will be less of an issue going forward, though it
might be an issue again tonight though probably less so with slightly warmer
temperatures and wetter warm advection snow. Tonight, winds turn to southwesterly,
with warm advection ahead of an Alberta clipper passing to the north bringing
synoptic-scale light snow. With the stiff southwesterly wind and clouds, radiational
cooling will be non-existent and steady to slightly rising temperatures are
expected after 03z. It does seem like USL is too warm at night, but other
models tend to be too cold. With a warmer air mass tomorrow, it will get above
freezing, with a bit of sun likely late in the day boosting temperatures a
little. Assuming the sun does come out, the downslope southerly component to
the wind should boost temperatures to above model guidance. Winds will be
similarly strong compared to today.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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