Day 7 recap:
Wow, it dropped to 49F this morning, only matched by the cold NAM 3-km. The high-resolution models (NAM 3-km and HRRR) did show the area of <10 mph SSE winds around KSPS around sunrise, which could have been a sign of this happening, similar to the beginning of day 5. The 49F is also lower than the other surrounding stations, though it's close just to the north. For some reason, <10 mph SSE winds create this type of gradient. I wonder what kind of topography is creating that, especially since this is in the middle of the Plains.
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| Source: Wunderground |
Of course, after sunrise, temperatures quickly warmed up into the 90s and winds strengthened and shifted to the SSW.
Day 8:
A cold front will arrive a few hours after the start. Southerly winds right ahead of the front will prevent radiational cooling and keep temperatures quite warm even through 06z, which is when the high will occur. The warmth right ahead of the cold front often overachieves.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
It will cool down quickly with a burst of strong northerly winds shortly after, associated with a classic push of low-level cold air. These bursts of wind and surges of cold air are typically underestimated by models, including the USL. Cloud cover and the colder air mass will prevent temperatures from rising much tomorrow, though no precipitation is expected. The low will occur at the late 06z (Sunday 06z) as cold advection continues, causing slow cooling despite thick cloud cover with the moisture trapped under the steep inversion.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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