Day 5 of 2021-22 Individual Tournament City: Wichita Falls, TX (KSPS)

Today, the head to head part of the tournament begins. In each round, each participant is paired up with one other participant, and they compete against each other. The participant with the best score advances to the next round, and the other participant is eliminated. Today and Tuesday constitute the Round of 64. Again, even those who have been eliminated from the tournament can still forecast as a bonus city. 

Day 4 recap:

We did it! High/low of 90F/37F making for a 53F spread. It's inevitable we'll eventually get it! Somehow, before this, when we have possible large swing cities, we've always had cloudier or windier conditions without such extreme dryness + strong radiational cooling.

Source: National Weather Service

Day 5:

As a low pressure approaches from the west and high pressure moves off the southeast U.S. coast, there will be strong southerly winds from on Tuesday, transporting warm and more humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. The wind and higher humidity will limit radiational cooling tonight, with the low occurring near the start (Tuesday 06z), with lighter SE winds just before the winds turn to southerly and strengthen. Low clouds will also likely develop late in the night, with the temperature profile featuring a classic warm dry layer aloft above a cooler but more moist layer in the low-levels.

Source: PivotalWeather

Daytime heating will burn off the low clouds in the morning, leaving for a partly to mostly sunny day. With the dry line off to the west, the hottest temperatures will stay to the west as well, though it will still be quite hot. With the more humid air mass, scattered cumulus clouds will form in the afternoon, with scattered severe t-storms developing just to the east Tuesday evening, as evident by the HRRR model below.

Source: PivotalWeather

If the storms develop close enough, the cold outflow could engulf Wichita Falls, too late to affect the high temperature, but could lead to a burst of strong winds with a wind shift from SSW to SSE. This appears somewhat less likely now given the difficulty in breaking the cap tomorrow afternoon.