Day 6 recap:
The cold front was stronger than modeled, which is not unusual with cold low-level air masses in the Plains surging from the north. Not only did the temperature fall quickly, from 71F to 57F in an hour, but the winds also ripped with a maximum of 30 kt. The low-level air mass was cool enough such that it only got back up to 71F in the afternoon, cooler than almost all models, even with full sunshine. Radiational cooling took place at the end, with it dropping to 44F by 06z and eventually 36F after that.
Day 7:
Today and Friday marks the Round of 32, the 2nd round of the tournament. South/southeasterly winds tonight will prevent strong radiational cooling, but they could weaken just enough for some better radiational cooling around sunrise. Light south to southeasterly winds seem to promote quicker cooling at KSPS, like what happened at the beginning of day 5.
During the day tomorrow, winds will turn to southwesterly ahead of a surface low pressure/cold front approaching from the northwest, and these days tend to lead to overachieving high temperatures. Although there may be some high cirrus clouds, they will be scattered and relatively thin, so it will warm up quickly into the 90s! However, there is still some uncertainty to the "dry line" location (using quotes since the moisture gradient will be much weaker than for a traditional dry line). As is typical at this time of year, if the wind is a little more backed (southerly), it will be more moist and cooler, and if it is more veered (southwesterly), it will be hotter and drier.
 |
| Source: PivotalWeather |
A cold front will arrive near the very end (06z Saturday) but most likely it will hold off until after 06z. However, this leads to uncertainty in the wind forecast, since the front will be accompanied by a burst of stronger northerly winds which most likely (but not guaranteed) occur after 06z and not count for day 7.
 |
| Source: PivotalWeather |
No comments:
Post a Comment