What a tricky week
it has been, and it is only going to get trickier for the final round of the
tournament. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms to the north of Tulsa,
raining into previously dry air, has led to a pronounced low-level cold pool and
sort of an outflow boundary just to the north of Tulsa. While it has gotten
much warmer than models today (80F!), this outflow boundary will pass through
Tulsa this evening, leading to a substantial drop in temperatures, perhaps to
even below most model guidance, as well as a weakening of the wind, which will
shift from southeasterly to easterly. This outflow boundary will serve as a
focus for additional shower and thunderstorm formation overnight as it stalls
and retreats back northeastward as strong southerly flow aloft continues and
prevails. The low will occur early tonight before the outflow boundary pushes
back north of Tulsa late in the night or tomorrow morning as an effective warm
front.
However, the main
line of stronger and heavier thunderstorms will form along the dry line well to
the west early tonight and then move east into Tulsa by early tomorrow morning,
meeting up with the outflow boundary. With deep low-level moisture now in
place, and the warm moist Gulf of Mexico air forced to list above the outflow boundary,
heavy rainfall is likely with the line of showers and thunderstorms, though the
heavier downpours will likely only last for an hour or so. The storms will also
provide a brief burst of wind, though somewhat mitigated by the low-level
inversion with Tulsa still potentially being on the cool side of the boundary
then.
After the front lifts
to the north, rain will stop, and winds will turn to southerly and strengthen
during the day tomorrow, perhaps stronger than with the line of storms early
tomorrow morning. Low clouds will gradually clear out tomorrow afternoon,
leading to a decent warm up and mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the
surface. Just when the low clouds erode and how much of a subtle downslope
westerly component of the wind is somewhat uncertain and is leading to some
uncertainty for the high. Complicated forecast for sure!
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: Aviation Weather Center |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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