Cold front passes sometime around 06z tonight, when
the high will occur, making for a tricky high temperature forecast. The cold
front appears to be stronger and pushing south faster than models, even high-resolution ones, which is not
uncommon in the Plains. As such, it will pass KTUL before 06z, contrary to
prior model runs, allowing it to drop below 60F by 06z. A few showers are
possible between 06z and 12z, with it turning cooler with strong northwesterly to
northerly winds. The thick low clouds and cold advection will keep daytime heating
to a minimum tomorrow, hence the high temperature at the beginning of the
period. The lack of daytime heating will prevent the strongest winds aloft from
mixing down to the surface, but it will still be quite breezy all day. The
clouds will clear around sunset tomorrow. The winds will also weaken for a few
hours tomorrow night (around 00-03z), when some radiational cooling will likely
occur. The northwesterly wind will pick up again slightly between 03z and 06z,
limiting further cooling. Given that the models have failed to show the strength
of the low-level cold air behind the cold front, I would lean toward the colder
model guidance.
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