Strong southerly
winds meant that it only cooled down to 56F last night despite clear skies and
rather dry air. Sunshine through early afternoon, along with winds turning to a
downsloping southwesterly, led to a warmup to a high of 77F, actually
surprisingly low, before rather thick mid-level clouds associated with a weak
cold front moved over Tulsa. The winds reached a maximum of 19 kt this morning,
also surprisingly low, before they weakened and already shifted to weak east-northeasterly.
The forecast really
becomes tricky for the rest of the week. Tonight, the weak cold front will pass
early on, switching winds to light northeasterly, and mid-level clouds will mostly
dissipate, though perhaps not completely. Lingering light northeasterly wind
will prevent ideal radiational cooling, but quick dips are still likely,
especially with the dry air in place. Sunshine initially tomorrow will lead to
a quick warmup in the morning, but as today’s weak cold front comes back
northward as a weak warm front, the front will lead to thickening mid and
high-level clouds and serve as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms to form
in the afternoon and evening. Much more humid air from the Gulf of Mexico
pushing northward will be forced to rise above the front, generating
precipitation, though the dry low-level air initially over Tulsa will preclude
particularly heavy or long-lasting rainfall. Still, the clouds will stop the
warm up early, with how soon they arrive dictating just how warm it gets. The
HRRR is much warmer than all other models, but has a high bias when there are
mid to high level clouds, and was also much too warm today. Winds will shift to
easterly and east-southeasterly and will be rather weak, with the afternoon
clouds and rain stabilizing the lower atmosphere and preventing strong winds from
mixing down to the surface from aloft. There could still be an initial weak
burst of wind when rain starts as it leads to evaporational cooling and a cold
pool induced gust front in the initially dry air, or later on with any subtle
wake low or mesoscale gravity wave.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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