After thick clouds in the morning, the warm front finally
pushed to the north in the afternoon, allowing for a rapid, last-minute warm up
as expected, with a high of 76F. Surprisingly though, it did not get any
warmer, and winds never really turned southerly. The true hot air remained just to the south. It has not been as windy as
expected so far, but there could still be a brief period of strong winds with approaching
strong showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front mixing down strong
winds from aloft. It will cool down rapidly afterward with winds switching to
westerly before 06z. Given the strength of the cold air mass behind the front,
most models are likely too gradual with the initial temperature drop, leading
to a lower than modeled high temperature (at the beginning or Wednesday 06z). It
will be windy and dry with increasing sunshine through the day tomorrow with
the sunshine battling cold advection leading to slowly rising temperatures, and
the daytime heating allowing for mixing of strong winds from aloft. Winds will
weaken tomorrow night to borderline favorable or still a tad too strong for
ideal radiational cooling, but the low will still be at the end (Thursday 06z)
given the colder air mass having established by then.
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