Apparently, dry air
prevented the rain from reaching the ground, and it cleared out sooner than
expected, leading to a sooner and bigger warmup than expected (high of 60F) after
a low of 41F this morning. The subtle front boosted winds last night to a maximum
of 14-15 kt. Mostly clear skies, with just some cirrus clouds, will lead to
decent radiational cooling tonight, though some easterly winds will prevent
ideal radiational cooling. Mostly sunny skies tomorrow, again other than some cirrus
clouds, will lead to a rapid warmup, though it will still be a little cooler
than average due to the cool air mass advecting in the weak easterly flow. Interestingly,
HRRR shows a colder low but warmer high than the NAM 3-km, with the high being
warmer than all other guidance. That reminds me of day 9, when the HRRR was the
warm outlier and a bit too warm due to underestimating the effects of low-level
cool easterly flow, though that appears weaker this time.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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