Rapid warmup this morning with
sunshine led to a high of 71F before it clouded up and the cold front arrived,
bringing a sudden maximum wind of at least 18 kt so far. Cold advection will
continue through tonight and tomorrow. Strong winds will prevent true
radiational cooling tonight despite clear skies, with the cold temperatures occurring
mainly through advection. Some sunshine tomorrow morning will lead to some
daytime heating, but the cold air aloft will lead to instability and increasing
clouds and showers, halting the warm up, similar to day 11. Interestingly, the
HRRR is the coolest model just like day 11, making me think that the other
models may be a bit too warm. The showers will likely be stronger than on day
11, with stronger gust fronts bringing brief periods of strong winds, but just
how strong the winds get depends on where the strongest showers go. Some models
suggest that the strongest showers and heaviest precipitation will pass just to
the south. Partial clearing and some cold advection could lead to the low
occurring at the end (Sunday 06z), but winds will again prevent ideal
radiational cooling, and it will be close to the low tonight.
Last day of WxChallenge until late September for the 2023-24
season!
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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