Unlike
yesterday morning, winds did not weaken and shift to south/southeasterly at the
last minute, and it only dropped to 7F (actually at the beginning, 06z). Just the
luck of the draw perhaps. The southwesterly wind also persisted a little longer
than usual, up to around noon, causing temperatures to soar to 41F by noon
before winds shifted to light easterly and it cooled down. This is really
reducing by confidence for day 7, as the setup of clear skies and south/southwesterly
winds at night through the early morning, and then light easterly winds in the
afternoon appear very similar to both days 5 and 6, and those turned out quite
different temperature-wise relative to model guidance. It is really very sensitive
to subtle details that are not necessarily predictable. I guess playing it safe,
not too far from model guidance, could be a good move. Winds should be similar
to today, though it appears that they will be a tad weaker and less westerly
tonight into tomorrow morning, leading to more cooling and less of a temperature
spike tomorrow, though temperatures will still be warmer as the air mass
continues to warm.
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