A persistent south-southwesterly breeze prevented it from
getting lower than 53F last night. Mostly sunny again today (but with some
cirrus streaming in now) with a high of 72F and maximum wind of 21 kt.
After a quiet first few days of the week, today’s forecast is
much trickier. A cold front will slowly push southeastward through Wisconsin
tomorrow, bringing a narrow band of heavy rain right ahead of the front and
widespread clouds. Most models agree that the heaviest rain stays to the north
of Milwaukee, but showers ahead of the front will likely bring some rain, with
a lot of model disagreement on just how much. Some of the showers could be
briefly heavy, but I suspect that it will be difficult to get more than 0.5” or
so given the brief nature of the showers, though some models disagree. With
persistent and strong southwest flow and increasing clouds, it will not cool
down much tonight, making for an unseasonably, possibly record-breaking warm
night. However, the clouds mean that it will not warm up much tomorrow (though
a brief spike with brief periods of sun can occur), and the showers will cool
it down later in the day and could make for the low at the end (Saturday 06z). The
convective showers could also pull briefly stronger winds from aloft down to
the surface. The main front is unlikely to have passed by Saturday 06z, so it will probably
still be quite warm for the low (no big drop), though the HRRR, NAM 3-km, and RDPS (but not the global models)
show a sneaky lake breeze barely penetrating and causing a lower low.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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