Not a cloud in the sky for
the past day, with a low of 44F this morning, a little higher than expected
given clear skies and mostly calm winds. Might be urban heat island or a bit of
downslope effect from the light westerly wind. A rapid warmup to a likely high of 72F followed
with full sunshine, warm advection, and westerly offshore winds preventing any lake
breeze cooling. It was above almost model guidance, as often happens with full
sunshine and offshore, slight downsloping westerly winds (max of 10-11 kt). Tonight, it will be
clear again but with a bit more southwesterly wind, which could prevent ideal
radiational cooling. Full sunshine again tomorrow, but the more southerly wind
(less offshore) will lead to a lake breeze in the afternoon, leading to cooler surface
temperatures than today despite warmer temperatures aloft. Also, the lake to land temperature gradient will be quite strong given the very warm air inland, leading to a very tricky high temperature forecast that is very sensitive to the exact timing and strength of the lake breeze. The lake breeze will also lead to somewhat stronger maximum winds than today.
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