Nighttime and morning fog and low clouds are throwing a
challenge at an otherwise boring, monotonic week of forecasting. They formed
earlier last night than the previous night, limiting the cooldown to 25F. It’s
pretty hard to predict when they will form, though there were some subtle signs
such as slightly higher dew points yesterday afternoon and models showing
thicker, more persistent clouds in the morning. The clouds did not break up
until noon local time again, and the high is so far only 44-45F though it will
rise for another 1-2 hours. Max wind so far is 6 kt.
Tonight will likely be similar to last night, with fog and
low clouds forming later in the night stopping the cool down. Before that, good
radiational cooling will occur, but some cirrus clouds and a bit of
northeasterly wind might keep it a tad warmer than last night. Slightly drier
air will advect from the northeast tomorrow due to a weak cold front, which
will cause clearing of low clouds earlier in the day and a slightly warmer day
due to increased sunshine. There will also be slightly stronger northeasterly
winds with more vertical mixing behind the cold front. Though I doubt it,
there’s a chance of the low actually occurring at the end (Friday 06z) due to
the drier air and slightly cooler air mass allowing for potentially quicker
cooling, though the northeasterly wind might not have calmed down enough yet
then for the potential quicker cooling to occur.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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