Tough
low forecast last night with it dropping to -2F before 06z but then
wind increased to just above the threshold for good radiational cooling
by 06z, so the low will be 4F. Really could have gone either way and it
would have been -5F had it been a bit calmer. Easterly winds are
strengthening and already reached 14 kt, stronger than expected so far,
and will continue to increase tonight into tomorrow and shift to
southeasterly. The winds are advecting warmer air (16F already), so it
will continue to warm up tonight and spike tomorrow morning, accompanied
by thickening clouds and snow as the storm in the Bering Sea approaches. There will be a steady snow for 4-6
hours as the warm front passes through. Temperatures will briefly spike
in the afternoon for a couple of hours as Nome barely enters the warm
sector with westerly wind, before winds turn to northerly with cold
advection in the evening. Models usually underdo these spikes, so I am
leaning to the warm side for the high. Winds will weaken with skies
clearing somewhat, leading to some radiational cooling, but it’s not
clear if it can get any lower than the early low at Wednesday 06z.
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