Surprisingly,
that squall line weakened substantially and only 0.10” fell in
Knoxville from that. A quick shower produced 0.01” this morning for day
3, but the vast majority of last night’s heavy rain went to the south
and west. The HRRR 22z run yesterday actually showed this quite well.
Also, I suppose the lower freezing levels in October means less warm
rain processes and less efficient precipitation production --> less
rain than reflectivity might suggest.
It’s clearing out this afternoon with briefly stronger
west-southwesterly winds oriented more in line with the Tennesssee
valley (overachieving max wind of 21 kt) and sunshine temporarily
offsetting cold air advection, with an overachieving high of 75F. This
warmer and windier than expected setup tends to happen right ahead of a
cold front or pressure trough when it is sunny. Winds will shift to
northwesterly and temperatures will fall quickly tonight with winds
lightening (though not turning completely calm) and clear skies leading
to good radiational cooling. By tomorrow though, a low pressure over the
Great Lakes will turn the wind out of the southwest, with a
corresponding switch to warm advection with plenty of sunshine. The
southwest winds will be aligned with the Tennessee valley again, but
most of the pressure gradient remains to the northwest, so the winds
won’t be that strong.
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| Source: National Weather Service |
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