23 UTC Update:
Wow,
these temps ahead of the cold front are really overachieving. 68F in
Milwaukee and likely will stay steady or even rise a bit by 06-07z,
given model temperature tendencies. Also,
strongest winds should be near the beginning of the period (Tuesday
06z) with 50 kt wind (low-level jet) just above the surface. Slight
nocturnal inversion will prevent the winds from fully mixing to the
surface, but it will still be rather breezy. The thick mid and
upper-level clouds and winds will prevent nighttime cooling and a
nocturnal inversion from really developing anyway.
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| Source: Aviation Weather Center and PivotalWeather |
Previous discussion:
Milwaukee is starting off
much more interesting than how Knoxville ended. With cloudy skies and a cold
frontal passage, temperatures will follow a non-diurnal trend, meaning not an
early morning low and afternoon high. Instead, high will be near the beginning
(Tuesday 06z) with the warm, often overachieving southerly or southwesterly
flow right ahead of the cold front. There is some lake moderation going on now but that should diminish briefly as a subtle westerly component to the wind gets going just after 06z. Showers will begin late in the night with
the frontal passage, and winds will switch to northerly, leading to a quick temperature
drop. With most of the upper-level energy lifting north into Canada, so just
showers and no severe weather is expected.
But unlike most cold fronts, it won’t
dry and clear out quickly behind this cold front. Instead, another storm will
immediately follow it Tuesday night and pass to the south of Milwaukee, leading
to Milwaukee being on the cool side of the front, with northerly winds and
perhaps a little lake moderation. A steady rain is likely for at least a few
hours but without the hit-or-miss nature of thunderstorms. The rain and
northerly winds will prevent any daytime heating. Low will be at the end
(Wednesday 06z) with rain ending but cold advection continuing with the northerly
wind. I think the HRRR has a fairly good handle on the setup, though it might be overestimating precipitation somewhat.
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