A
squall line with a strong outflow boundary (cold pool and gust front)
currently to the north is pushing southeastward, but given that the
convection is already pushing well east of San Antonio and is continuing
to move east, any outflow boundary will likely slow down and dissipate
before reaching San Antonio, having no effect on tonight’s low.
Southeasterly winds will bring back moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight, leading to low-level clouds stopping radiational cooling late
in the night, leading to a similar low to last night.
The low-level clouds will break up only partially tomorrow afternoon,
leading to some warmup, but not to its full potential if it were sunny.
There is also model disagreement on how much it clears out and warms up,
with HRRR and NAM 3-km being cooler than other models. Any daytime
heating will help mix down winds aloft down to the surface, though the
winds will likely not be as quite as strong as earlier today.
With the daytime heating, there is still the chance of scattered showers
and thunderstorms, though as always this week, there is considerable
model disagreement on this given the lack of strong synoptic forcing.
Any storms will be relatively shallow, and with the moist low-level air,
it means that it will be difficult to produce strong cold pools that
can produce strong gust fronts. Still, it is possible that any storms
produce slightly stronger winds than the background synoptic-scale
winds, and given that almost all the moisture is in the low-levels,
heavy rain is still possible even with relatively shallow convection.
Most models show not much rain, but HRRR is showing more storms, which
is also plausible.
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| Source: Wunderground |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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