We start off with mostly
clear skies again, with just some high cirrus clouds, but unlike last week, the
southeasterly winds tonight will advect low-level moisture, eventually forming
low clouds late in the night, though not particularly thick or widespread. The
combination of wind and some low clouds will hamper radiational cooling, with
lows likely at or slightly above model guidance.
A weakening cold
front will bring a surge of northeasterly winds tomorrow morning, with the strongest
winds occurring a few hours after sunrise, after the sun has heated the ground
enough to cause vertical mixing of the stronger winds just aloft down to the
surface, and before the front pushes to the south and weakens further. Models
often underestimate the peak winds in this kind of setup. This front is
slightly stronger than the one on day 7, hence the winds will be stronger with
lower high temperatures than day 7, even with the frontal passage drying out
the air, clearing most of the low cloud cover, as well as likely enhancing
vertical mixing and scouring out any low-level inversion.
Still, there is a
little more uncertainty than last week regarding the high temperature, with
some low to mid-level clouds possibly lingering even into the afternoon, which
would lower temperatures a bit more than if the sunnier solution verifies, and
there are also subtle differences in how strong the cool air mass will be at
San Antonio tomorrow behind the cold front. I still suspect that it will lean
on the warm side of model guidance.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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